Polyme

$147,579 Vol. Ends Dec 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.