Polyme

$287,498 Vol. Ends May 16, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.