Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year
$1,723,895 Vol.
Ends Dec 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markets
10 markets
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
$577,256 Vol.
Active
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?
$276,895 Vol.
Active
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?
$168,001 Vol.
Active
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?
$140,117 Vol.
Active
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?
$127,371 Vol.
Active
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?
$107,564 Vol.
Active
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?
$41,372 Vol.
Active
Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?
$17,332 Vol.
Active
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?
$211,100 Vol.
Closed
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?
$56,887 Vol.
Closed
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