Polyme

$333,899 Vol. Ends Nov 05, 2025

The New York City Mayoral Election is scheduled to take place on November 4, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani says the listed term during his first post-election victory/concession speech given after November 4, 2025, 9 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Mamdani's appearance(s) at the listed speech. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the stated speech will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the speech contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. A “post-election speech” refers to the first live major address by Zohran Mamdani after 9 PM ET on November 4 in which he acknowledges or reacts to the election result in definitive or victory/defeat-style terms. Speeches qualify if Mamdani explicitly claims victory or otherwise speaks as if he has won—for example, thanking supporters, referencing “our administration,” or outlining plans for office. Remarks that focus on continued vote counting, urge patience, or avoid characterizing the outcome do not qualify, nor do interviews, press gaggles, recorded statements, or social-media posts. To qualify, the speech must last at least five consecutive minutes of continuous live delivery. If multiple appearances occur, the first qualifying live address will be used. If none occurs by November 5, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official video of the speech.