Polyme

$184,509 Vol. Ends Nov 30, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official defense or security agreement, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that modify, expand, or codify existing U.S.–Saudi defense or security arrangements will qualify if they are announced as individualized mutual agreements. However, broad policy directives or general strategic statements that are not specific to a distinct U.S.–Saudi deal — such as global or regional defense postures, general strategic visions, or blanket policy shifts not tied to a specific agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia — will not qualify. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and Saudi Arabia as parties, even if they also involve additional countries, will qualify for resolution. Qualifying agreements include: - A formal U.S.–Saudi defense pact (treaty-style or equivalent) publicly announced. - A bilateral security guarantee or “mutual defense understanding” with clear, finalized commitments. - A renewal or expansion of an existing U.S.–Saudi Defense Cooperation Agreement that adds new binding commitments. - A finalized defense/security cooperation deal involving U.S.–Saudi basing access, joint operations, or missile/air defense integration. - A finalized arms-transfer agreement when explicitly part of a broader U.S.–Saudi security agreement. - A multilateral agreement that includes both the United States and Saudi Arabia as named parties (e.g., U.S.–Saudi–Israel security framework) The following will NOT qualify: - General political statements or strategic declarations that do not constitute a finalized mutual agreement. - Broad regional defense doctrines or global policy frameworks that do not specify a distinct U.S.–Saudi agreement. - Unilateral statements by either the U.S. or Saudi Arabia announcing intent without confirmation of mutual agreement. - Non-binding memoranda of understanding, exploratory frameworks, or “agreements in principle” without finalized terms. - Routine or standalone arms sales (e.g., approval of Patriot missiles or F-15 parts) not tied to a named security agreement. - Negotiations, drafts, leaks, or indications of progress toward a deal that is not finalized and publicly announced. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming that a defense or security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has been reached.