Polyme

$151,344 Vol. Ends Sep 20, 2024

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 60.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on September 20, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 20 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for September 20 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 20.