Polyme

$116,266 Vol. Ends Nov 04, 2024

On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.