How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Start
2025-09-29 22:29
End
2026-12-31 00:00
Volume (all time)
$976,101.30
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Markets
13 markets
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $98,147
7d: $44,552
Active
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Volume: $109,075
7d: $45,800
Active
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $99,732
7d: $37,671
Active
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $62,882
7d: $15,372
Active
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $58,912
7d: $11,923
Active
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $82,114
7d: $13,771
Active
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $91,033
7d: $16,695
Active
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $55,760
7d: $9,940
Active
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $76,122
7d: $9,155
Active
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $53,451
7d: $8,375
Active
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $55,671
7d: $9,683
Active
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $59,071
7d: $7,366
Active
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $74,130
7d: $11,402
Active