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polymarket How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Event detail
Start
2025-09-29 22:29
End
2026-12-31 00:00
Volume (all time)
$976,101.30
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Markets
13 markets
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $98,147 7d: $44,552 Active
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Volume: $109,075 7d: $45,800 Active
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $99,732 7d: $37,671 Active
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $62,882 7d: $15,372 Active
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $58,912 7d: $11,923 Active
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $82,114 7d: $13,771 Active
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $91,033 7d: $16,695 Active
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $55,760 7d: $9,940 Active
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $76,122 7d: $9,155 Active
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $53,451 7d: $8,375 Active
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $55,671 7d: $9,683 Active
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $59,071 7d: $7,366 Active
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume: $74,130 7d: $11,402 Active