Polyme

The European Union (EU) is considering using frozen Russian assets under its member states’ control to fund Ukraine in its ongoing war effort against Russia. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/eus-costa-we-are-very-close-solution-frozen-russian-assets-2025-12-09/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union reaches a new, official agreement to use frozen Russian assets under its member countries’ control to fund Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Frozen Russian assets refers to Russian State-owned financial assets or proceeds from those assets that are frozen under EU sanctions regimes. A qualifying use includes either the direct transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine or alternative financial strategies which use the frozen Russian assets to facilitate financial transfers or loans to Ukraine (e.g. the EU uses the frozen assets to guarantee a loan to Ukraine or the assets are transferred to financial intermediaries who then make loans to Ukraine). The use of frozen Russian assets to buy arms or other military supplies that will be subsequently transferred to Ukraine will also qualify as using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. An announcement of such an agreement within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of whether a qualifying use of the assets has actually occurred. Isolated instances of the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine by individual EU member states will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the EU and a consensus of credible reporting.