Polyme

$27,821 Vol. Ends Oct 25, 2024

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 55.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on October 25, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 25 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for October 25 is available by October 29, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 25.